In poll results released on Wednesday by Emerson College Polling, Ohio Republican U.S. Senate nominee JD Vance leads Democrat nominee Tim Ryan 45 percent to 42 percent.
The survey of Ohio voters was conducted between August 15 and 16. The FBI raided former President Trump’s Florida home on August 8.
The poll resulted noted that in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 53 percent of likely Ohio midterm voters would plan to vote for Trump and 39 percent would vote for Biden.
39 percent of respondents additionally said that the recent FBI raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home makes them more likely to support him for president in 2024, while 35 percent said it makes them less likely to support the former president.
27 percent said it makes no difference.
Biden received a 39 percent job approval among the respondents while 56 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
“A majority of rural voters, 55 percent, say they are more likely to support the former president following the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Suburban voters are more split – 38 percent say it makes them less likely to support Trump and 35 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for the former president in two years,” Kimball said.
Four percent of respondents said that they plan to vote for someone else and 10 percent are undecided.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “A gender divide exists in the race for US Senate; women voters support Ryan over Vance, and male voters support Vance over Ryan. That said, male voters break at a more significant 20-point margin for Vance, whereas women voters break for Ryan by a 15-point margin.”
Kimball continued, “Both Vance and Ryan have strong bases of support, and the race tightens to a one-point lead for Vance among the very motivated and very likely voters in Ohio, whereas Vance leads by a larger margin among somewhat likely and somewhat motivated voters.”
According to Emerson College Polling, “The sample consisted of somewhat and very likely general election voters, n=925, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by age, gender, region, race and education based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.”
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Aaron Gulbransen is a reporter at The Ohio Star and The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected]. Follow Aaron on GETTR, Twitter, Truth Social, and Parler.
Photo “JD Vance” by JD Vance. Photo “Tim Ryan” by Tim Ryan.