Dave McCormick is polling ahead of Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) in two surveys of Pennsylvania voters as fact-checkers push the senator on the false claims about McCormick made in his latest ad, and as the Democrat seeks to distance himself from the Biden-Harris administration.
McCormick led Casey by 1.2 percent in a survey released this week by Atlas Intel, leading the Democrat 48.3 percent to 47.1 percent. This, first survey showing McCormick ahead was conducted October 12-17, meaning respondents were questioned both before and after Casey and McCormick met for their second debate.
The pollsters reported a margin of error of 2 percent, leaving the Casey and McCormick statistically tied in the first public poll showing the Republican ahead.
A second poll was published by Trafalgar Group on Monday, similarly showing McCormick ahead, but with an even narrower 0.4 percent lead over Casey among voters in the Keystone State and an even greater margin of error of 2.9 percent, again leaving the candidates statistically tied.
Still, the Trafalgar poll was conducted between October 17-19, indicating McCormick’s narrow lead over Casey may be sustained with just two weeks until Election Day.
The surveys were released as Casey faces criticism from fact-checkers over his campaign’s false claim that McCormick “made clear” his plans to slash social security and Medicaid if elected in November. The Washington Post ultimately assigned “Four Pinocchio’s” to Casey’s claim, which the outlet defines as a “whopper” of a lie.
They also come as Casey attempts to distance himself from the Biden-Harris administration. The campaign released an ad declaring the senator “bucked Biden” and voted with former President Donald Trump on key legislation. The ad was released despite Casey campaigning with President Joe Biden earlier this month.
Both surveys showing McCormick leading are tracked by RealClearPolling, which now shows Casey with just a 1.9 percent average lead over his Republican challenger during the final stretch before voters cast their ballots in November.
Amid the tight polling, the Cook Political Report changed Pennsylvania from leaning Democratic to a “toss-up.” The group forecasts that McCormick and other Republicans’ ability to win “toss-up” elections will likely determine the size of the Republican majority in the U.S. Senate come January.
Both surveys also showed former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, with the pollsters at Atlas showing the former president leading by 3.3 percent. Trump was supported by 49.8 percent of respondents, compared to 46.5 percent who said they supported Harris.
Trump’s lead was similar at 3 percent in the Trafalgar survey, which found the former president is leading with the support of 46.3 percent of Pennsylvania voters while Harris trails at 43.3 percent.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Dave McCormick” by Dave McCormick. Photo “Bob Casey” by Bob Casey.
