by Cameron Arcand
New polling numbers show that Republican Kari Lake is still well on her way to win the party’s nomination for Senate.
In a Noble Predictive Insights poll of 364 registered Republican voters, Lake leads with 46% compared with Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb’s 21%. Still, 25% of voters are unsure and 9% are backing “someone else.” The poll has a 5.14% margin of error and it was conducted from May 7-14. The pollster noted that this is a decrease from 54% in February, but more 8% more Republican voters are now in the undecided column.
On favorability among 1,003 registered Arizona voters, Lake has a 6% net negative favorability overall, but a +32% net positive favorability among Republicans. Among independents, her net favorability is down 9%, but Lamb’s is up 14% among the group. However, Lamb has +18% net favorability among all voters and a +36% net favorability among Republicans.
“It’s not that Mark Lamb is unpopular among Republicans; they just prefer Lake as their nominee – for now,” Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO, said in a news release. “Being liked is half the battle, and Lamb has the edge over Lake there. He just needs to change up his strategy to make a good enough case for himself.”
Based on an earlier poll from February among 1,002 registered voters from NPI, Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego leads Lake by 10%, with 46% compared with her 36%. Still, 19% of those polled were “not sure” which candidate they would choose in the general election. A CBS News/YouGov poll from May 10-16 of 1,510 “adults living in Arizona” shows Gallego at 49% and Lake at 36%.
Unlike Lake, Gallego does not have a major primary challenger.
“In one week, we have two polls showing Kari Lake trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego by double digits in the general election,” Lamb said in a news release on Thursday. “Her negatives are too high, Independents won’t vote for her and she loses 17% of the Republican base. That’s a recipe for Republican disaster in November, and we aren’t going to allow that to happen. With our border wide open and inflation destroying the middle class, the stakes are too high for Arizona and for our nation.”
The Lake and Gallego campaigns did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.
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Cameron Arcand is a staff reporter for The Center Square covering Arizona.
Photo “Mark Lamb” by Sheriff Lamb and “Kari Lake” by The Kari Lake. Background photo “Arizona State Capitol” by Adavyd.
