The latest Vanderbilt Poll paints a picture of a politically divided Tennessee, but the poll’s methodology reveals its creators prioritized registered voters in the Nashville area.
The Vanderbilt Poll, launched by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions in an attempt to provide a nonpartisan reading of public opinion, portrayed Tennesseans as overall politically conservative but starkly divided over certain issues.
For example, the poll’s results indicated Tennessean voters as virtually evenly split on their opinions about the Tennessee state legislature, Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), and support for school vouchers. A slim majority of the poll’s respondents also identified themselves as pro-choice.
The Vanderbilt Poll’s methodology, however, revealed a disproportionate focus on registered voters in the Nashville area. Approximately 25 percent of those surveyed for the poll were registered voters in that region, according to the Vanderbilt Poll’s methods report.
The poll’s sample comprised about 37 percent of voters from the east region of Tennessee, 20 percent from central, and 18 percent from west, meaning the Nashville area was more represented than west Tennessee and the rest of middle Tennessee.
Davidson County, which contains Nashville, overwhelmingly voted to elect Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 over Republican former President Donald Trump. The county also overwhelmingly voted for Marquita Bradshaw in 2020, the Democratic challenger to current Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN).
All other Tennessee counties, excluding Shelby County, voted for Trump in 2020.
Vanderbilt University and some Nashville media outlets highlighted the slight edge of respondents who identified themselves as pro-choice voters, implying that most Tennessee voters are pro-choice. They did not note the priority given to Nashville area voters.
“This latest Vanderbilt Poll suggests that there continues to be misalignment between the actions of the state legislature and a majority of registered voters on a number of key policies,” Vanderbilt Poll Co-Director John Geer said in a Vanderbilt press release. “There is clear evidence that Tennessee is a ‘pro-exception’ state, with voters accepting of the right to choice in cases such as rape, incest, the health of a mother or fetal viability, but now the state has also moved into a pro-choice camp.”
“State government appears to be paying a bit of a penalty for pursuing policies that are out of touch with Tennesseans,” Geer continued.
The biannual poll split Republicans into two camps—regular “Republicans” and “MAGA Republicans”—to mark distinctions between voters within the Republican Party. The poll did not make such a distinction among Democrat voters.
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Matthew Giffin is a reporter at The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network. Follow Matthew on X/Twitter.
