Kari Lake holds a commanding, 33-point lead in the race to secure the Arizona Republican Party (AZGOP) nomination to run for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released Wednesday.
Pollsters additionally found Lake statistically tied with Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03), who is poised to secure the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, when Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) was included in the survey.
The Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) poll showed Lake has the support of 54 percent of Arizona Republicans, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was supported by 21 percent, and Brian Wright had the support of 6 percent of the state’s Republicans.
In a general election race including Lake, Gallego and Sinema, pollsters found Gallego ahead with 34 percent of support, followed by Lake at 31 percent, then Sinema with just 23 percent. An additional 12 percent told pollsters they were undecided.
The poll of 1,002 Arizona registered voters, conducted between February 6 and February 13, is reported to have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, meaning Gallego’s lead over Lake remains a statistical tie in the three-way race.
Should Sinema decide against running for reelection, pollsters found Gallego would have a 10-point lead, but the number of undecided voters increased to 16 percent.
Gallego remains somewhat unknown to the electorate, noted NPI, which explained the Democrat may be benefiting from relatively his low name recognition with voters.
“Right now, all three candidates are working to rally their respective parties,” explained NPI CEO Mike Noble. “But soon, that phase of the campaign will be over. Voters will tune in and hear Lake’s attacks against Gallego. His favorability rating may not stay so positive.”
The poll and Noble’s remarks come after Lake received endorsements from high profile Republican senators, culminating in the endorsement of Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).
Daines called Lake “one of the most talented candidates in the country” who is “building out an effective campaign operation that has what it takes to flip Arizona’s Senate seat in November.”
Meanwhile, many have noted that Sinema is quickly running out of time to declare a reelection campaign, as she would need to gather roughly 42,000 valid signatures by April 1 to be placed on the ballot as an independent candidate.
A recent report by Axios estimated that Sinema could accomplish such a feat, and would enter the race with nearly $10 million to spend on her reelection, but noted the senator’s recent fundraising reports indicate little ability to replenish her campaign coffers since leaving the Democratic Party.
In January, a separate survey released by Democratic pollsters associated with Gallego showed Lake narrowly winning against Gallego, with Sinema in a distant third place.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Georgia Star News, The Virginia Star, and the Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by The Kari Lake.
