The Battle for Virginia: Youngkin Falls Short as Democrats Take Both Chambers

Virginia’s Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin failed in his epic attempt to put both legislative chambers of the General Assembly under GOP control, closing out November 7, Election Day, one of the boldest campaigns in the modern history of the Old Dominion’s off-cycle elections.

As of press time, Democrats took back control of the House of Delegates with 51 seats to 47 for Republicans. This is a flip from the 52-48 edge Republicans enjoyed since the 2021 election.

Youngkin, who is limited to the one term he won in 2021, was frustrated repeatedly with the State Senate Democrats controlled with a 22-18 majority. In the next session, Democrats will keep control with a 21-18 majority — with one seat still in flux.

The last Senate seat to be decided is the new 24th Senate District, which included Newport News and parts of York County. Republican Danny Diggs, the retired York County sheriff, faced Democrat Monty Mason, with Diggs carrying a 51 percent to 49 percent advantage into the morning.

Although more than 98 percent of the ballots have been counted, the district will be decided by the hundreds of provisional ballots submitted by William and Mary students taking advantage of the commonwealth’s generous same-day registration laws.

Anti-gun rights activist David Hogg was at William and Mary to help rally the students for Monty.

Diggs declared victory, but his opponent did not concede.

The governor personalized the campaign to win control of the legislature, and he used his Spirit of Virginia PAC to raise more than $20 million.

If Youngkin succeeded in holding control of the House and gained control of the Senate, his name would have immediately become part of the conversation and plotting associated with the effort to stop President Donald J. Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Now, this kind of talk seems like nonsense, as Youngkin is now stuck with a state legislature united against him and his agenda.

In his final pitch to voters the morning of Election Day, Youngkin told reporters that he was counting on voters recognizing that Republicans are aligned with their values and interests.

“I hope Virginians recognize that the Senate that’s been controlled by Democrats has truly been working against things like job growth, things like tax relief, things like excellence in education and safe communities,” he said.

“This is our chance to stand up as Virginians and hopefully charge a different direction,” he said.

“I hope Virginians understand that we are the party that is trying to do everything we can to create jobs. 230,000 new jobs in the last 22 months,” he said. “We’ve gone from near the bottom of job growth to number three in the country and job growth during that time period.”

John Fredericks – radio, TV host, and publisher of The Virginia Star – said the key to Republicans failing to keep the House and win the Senate is their inability to address the issue of abortion rights.

“Democrats are running across the country now on just one issue, and it’s working to get their base turned out,” said Fredericks, who broadcasted on his John Fredericks Radio Network for five hours Election Day night.

“Doesn’t matter if they’re running for dog catcher, soil and water representative, state senate supervisor, or school board, they run on one issue and that’s abortion,” he said.

“Until Republicans have an answer for this, we’re going to continue to lose,” said the host, who traveled the commonwealth in a wrapped bus to bring attention to Republican legislative candidates. “In Virginia, we had no coherent message. Youngkin did a great job and raising money and running around in his red vest.”

Former GOP delegate Chris Saxman said Republicans have to accept their pro-life message does not work in Virginia.

Even when Republicans, as Youngkin did in this campaign, tell voters they will not ban abortions before 15 weeks, voters still do not trust them.

“Republicans have had, conservatives had 50 years to find a discernible message,” he said.

They need to tell voters they understand how people feel about abortions, Saxman said.

“We care about women. We’re here to help. We’re not here to judge—and heretofore, they haven’t gotten their heads wrapped around that simple fact that they have to prepare for this moment,” he said.

Republicans are paying the price for not having a plan for what would happen after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“If you’re going to run on it and try to win on it, and you do, and Roe is overturned, you might want to have a contingency plan,” he said.

“Right now, suburban women of America do not trust Republicans on the question of abortion; that’s what it comes down to. That’s it,” he said.

Fredericks said Youngkin did not get the job done.

“Glenn Youngkin basically underperformed in every possible category, and so any of this idea that he’s going to run for president in 2024, that’s gone out the window, and now his future political career is at risk because he couldn’t deliver on a victory here,” he said.

Republican Delegate John McGuire, who represents the 56th House District but won the State Senate seat representing the 10th Senate District, said he gives Youngkin credit for what he accomplished.

The Navy SEAL combat veteran said Youngkin’s most significant contribution to the GOP effort this off-cycle was his changing people’s minds about early voting and his Secure Your Vote program.

“What Governor Youngkin said is: ‘Look, if we focus all of our energy on one day and they focus all their energy on 45 days,’ it’s kind of hard to compete — so, he said: ‘Let’s compete.’”

McGuire said Republicans were reticent about breaking their Election Day practice, but Youngkin pushed them into competing based on the rules as they are and what they now allow.

“We may not like the election laws, but we’ve got to get our folks to fight fire with fire,” he said.

The senator-elect said the governor is a fantastic leader, and whatever the disappointments about this election, things would have been worse without Youngkin.

“He’s a heck of a leader, a heck of a quarterback,” he said. “He put his heart and soul into this race, and it’s not over yet — there are some places across Virginia where there’s a lot of ballots still out, especially a lot of mail-in ballots, and maybe our saving grace will be those mail-in ballots.

“Those early votes that we got from Secure Your Votes, we don’t have all those in yet, so when you see the numbers where it says 95 percent, they haven’t finished counting those votes,” he said.

“We’re praying that we get some success, but it’s a tough one.”

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Neil W. McCabe is a staff reporter for The Virginia Star.