by Manzanita Miller
President Biden continues to trail across the country singing the virtues of “Bidenomics”, but voters aren’t buying it – especially female voters in highly contested battleground states that will play an outsized role in 2024.
Biden won women by a wide fifteen-percentage-point margin in 2020, but new polling shows he is suffering double-digit losses with women across key battleground states, and the economy, rising crime, inaction on the border, and foreign policy all play a role.
A late October Morning Consult poll of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points across the states.
Biden is trailing Trump by several percentage-points in five key states he narrowly won in 2020, indicating several swing states may jump back into the GOP column in the next election. Biden trails Trump by five points in Georgia and by four points in Arizona, both of which he won in 2020. He trails Trump by three points in Nevada and by two points in Wisconsin, both of which he won in 2020. Biden also trails Trump by one point in Pennsylvania which he won in 2020 as well.
Biden is also trailing Trump by four points in North Carolina, a state he lost in 2020. The only swing state where Trump is not ahead of Biden is Michigan, where the two are running evenly.
The largest contributor to Biden’s reversal of support in swing states is the economy, with voters across the swing states saying “Bidenomics” is bad for the economy by a two-to-one margin, 49% to 26%.
Biden appears to be on the brink of losing well over a tenth of voters in swing states who backed him in the 2020 election, with 14% of voters who supported him in 2020 saying they won’t back Biden in the next election.
Who might be in that coalition of former Biden voters who have had enough and are exiting the Democratic Party in the next election? According to similar swing state polling by Redfield & Wilton, women are likely one of the largest coalitions that are switching allegiance.
Americans for Limited Government already pointed out that Biden is polling at double-digit losses across swing states with Gen Z voters compared to 2020, but Biden is also suffering steep declines with women compared to 2020.
The following chart compiled using Redfield & Wilton polling data shows just how dire Biden’s numbers are with women now compared to 2020 exit polls.
Take a look at Pennsylvania, where Biden won a comfortable 55% of female voters in 2020 to Trump’s 44% but is on track to win just 39% in the next election, a 16-percentage-point decline compared to 2020.
Biden’s prospects do not improve much in Michigan, where he won a wide 57% of female voters in 2020 compared to Trump’s 43%. The latest swing state polling shows Biden on track to win just 42% of female voters next election, a 15-percentage-point decline since 2020.
Biden narrowly won Florida women in 2020 51% to Trump’s 48%, but he is on track to win just 36% of their vote in the next election, another 15-percentage-point decline compared to 2020.
North Carolina shows an equally steep decline in female support for Biden, with Biden winning 53% of female voters in 2020 to Trump’s 46%, but on track to win just 39% next election, a 14- percentage-point decline.
Arizona follows a similar trajectory, where exit polls show Biden won a comfortable 51% of female voters to Trump’s 48% in 2020. Compare that number to where he is polling with women now at just 37%. That is a 14-percentage-point decline compared to 2020.
Georgia shows a slightly smaller decline with Biden winning 54% of female voters in 2020 to Trump’s 45%. The latest polling shows Biden earning just 43% of women, an 11-percentage-point decline compared to 2020.
Women are also more critical of Biden’s performance than men are across a range of hot-button issues. Polling from YouGov shows women are particularly critical of Biden’s handling of the economy, crime, immigration, and national security, giving Biden lower rankings than men do across these issues.
On the economy, just 37% of women compared to 43% of men approve of Biden’s actions, while on crime just 30% of women compared to 36% of men approve. These are both six-percentage-point differences with women hitting Biden harder.
On immigration, another dominant issue, women approve of Biden’s job eight-percentage-points less than men, with just 27% of women compared to 35% of men supporting Biden’s actions.
National security is the issue women show the largest disparity on, with women approving of Biden’s handling of national security matters a full 10-percentage-points less than men. Just 36% of women compared to 46% of men support Biden’s actions on national security.
Women also disproportionately cite inflation and gas prices as very important issues to them, with 80% of women compared to 68% of men indicating inflation and gas process are ‘very important’ according to YouGov.
Democrats trumpeted Biden’s victory with women in 2020, including his ability to win back a greater share of the female vote against Trump than Hillary Clinton was able to secure in 2016, but those voters may swing back the other direction. Economic issues play a central role in women’s dissatisfaction with Biden, but women also give Biden harsh marks on issues like immigration, crime, and foreign policy that will play outsized roles in the next election.
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Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Photo “Women for Trump Supporters” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.
