by Robert Romano
It is no mystery that the core demographics for the Democratic Party include single women, blacks and Hispanics. In 2020, Biden won unmarried women 63 percent to 36 percent over former President Donald Trump, blacks 87 percent to 12 percent and Latinos 65 percent to 32 percent, according to the CNN exit poll.
Biden also won women, broadly, 57 percent to 42 percent. And Biden carried singles, 58 percent to 40 percent.
Whereas, Trump won whites 58 percent to 41 percent, married men 55 percent to 44 percent and married women 51 percent to 47 percent. And he won white men 61 percent to 38 percent and white women 55 percent to 44 percent.
And Trump won men, generally, 53 percent to 45 percent. And Trump carried married persons, 53 percent to 46 percent.
And so it might be little wonder to learn that under President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and his administration’s economic policies — what Biden is fond of calling “Bidenomics” — inflation-adjusted income decreased for every single group except for single women, Blacks and Hispanics in 2022 even though inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
For single mothers, median household income increased 1.6 percent to $56,030.
Otherwise for nonfamily households, single women saw a 4.3 percent increase to $40,200.
For Blacks, median household income increased 1.5 percent $52,860.
And for Hispanics, income increased 0.5 percent to $62,800.
Whereas, in Republican-dominated constituent groups, everyone got poorer.
Married couples saw a 3.9 percent drop in income to $110,800.
Whites are doing worse, whose incomes are down 3.6 percent to $81,060, more than any other group.
Single also fathers saw a 3.2 percent drop in income to $73,630.
And for nonfamily households, single men saw a 2.6 percent decrease in income to $51,930.
How to explain the disparity among race and sex? Even with the inflation, things to look at might be levels of education attainment and to a lesser extent, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) corporate policies designed to promote women and minorities over white men, likely in violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act that prohibits sexual and racial discrimination in employment. However, while the impact of DEI on income certainly deserves further study, it cannot be gleaned from government statistics.
Focusing on the level of educational attainment, then, as a singular factor, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, first off, the only group that made more money in 2022 than did not were those without a high school diploma over the age of 25, a 6.4 percent increase to $34,800.
High school but no college was down 5.3 percent to $51,470.
Some college was down 1 percent to $68,690.
And Bachelor’s degree and higher were down 4.9 percent to $118,300.
So, if there are only 19.4 million working aged Americans over 25 without a high school diploma, or just 8.5 percent of the 227.8 million population over the age of 25, how are single women doing better, and blacks and Hispanics for that matter? Every single one of those groups finished high school by a lot, including 91 percent of blacks and 76 percent of Hispanics.
For that, you have to look at the massive gender gap that has emerged in college.
76 million women attended college, including 16.75 million with some college, 12.6 million with associate’s degrees, 28.2 million with bachelor’s degrees and 18.4 million with master’s degrees or above.
Comparatively, only 67.9 million men have attended college, including 16.1 million with some college, 10.87 million with associate’s degrees, 25.25 million with bachelor’s degrees and 15.75 million with master’s degrees or above.
Whereas, there are 42.8 million men who have not gone to college compared with 40.7 million women who have not gone to college. But that’s a shrinking population as Baby Boomers pass away.
And, more minorities than ever are going to college, including 58 percent of blacks, or 16.8 million out of 28.9 million over the age of 25. And 43.2 percent of Hispanics, or 16.4 million out of 37.9 million.
That compares with 69 percent of whites who went to college, or 95.6 million out of 138 million.
On these counts, higher levels of educational attainment correlate strongly with significantly higher levels of income and lower levels of unemployment, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
And so, recent college enrollees are weighted female, and the female employee population ratio is at near historic highs at 56.3 percent. In 1960, it was 35 percent.
Whereas the male employment population ratio is near historic lows at 68 percent. In 1960, it was 82 percent.
So, just by more women working than not on account of having fewer children, plus being highly educated, is enough to increase inflation-adjusted incomes for single women even in a year when inflation hits 9.1 percent. Similarly, as more minorities enter the labor force, being more highly educated than before, and therefore making more money in the jobs they get, can push the incomes up even amid inflation.
But this might not be sustainable politically for long.
As for marital status, there are 68.8 million unmarried women, including 11.5 million widows and 14.6 million divorcees, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
And there are 68.5 million married women. Just a 49 percent marriage rate, the lowest in U.S. history.
And there are 63.5 million unmarried men, including 3.7 million widows and 10.9 million divorcees.
And there are 67.9 million married men. A 50 percent marriage rate, also an historic low.
And fertility is nearly lower than ever, at just 1.66 babies per woman, according to the World Bank. No wonder.
So, for 2024 and Biden’s reelection bid, how do different groups stack up? Unmarried women are making more money than before at 68.8 million.
But married women at 68.5 million are making less.
And both married and unmarried men, totaling 131 million, are making less.
Put simply, Democrats might be able to win a war on men, or a war on marriage, but not a war on men and marriage simultaneously. If the 2024 election boils down to whether individuals are better off based on their marital status and gender, it might not be close.
But when you break it down along racial lines, with blacks and Hispanics making more, plus single women, then those doing better on average appears to rise significantly despite the inflation. There might even be some reverse discrimination baked into the cake. That is where the politics of Bidenomics begins to make a little more sense, but not by much.
Even then, if add up all the single women, blacks and Hispanics in the country who appear to be doing slightly better on average vis a vis inflation-adjusted income, it only adds up to 131.5 million. If you add up all the white men and married white women who are worse off on average, it adds up to 122.5 million. But then one might add how many black and Hispanic married couples who voted for Biden that are in fact worse off thanks to the prices. It wouldn’t take much.
For example, the 7.6 million Asian households, who took a 0.6 percent pay cut in 2022 to $108,700.
The real question in 2024 might be whether there are more haves than have nots. And if the inflation continues, the group being worse off could become even greater than it is now, and Bidenomics might have been self-defeating. Time will tell. Stay tuned.
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Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
