Following the official party switch from Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I), a recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll found that she appears to be sinking against other potential candidates for the 2024 Senate race.
The poll found that between three hypothetical candidates, Kari Lake for Republicans, Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-07) for Democrats, and Kyrsten Sinema as an independent, Sinema would find herself last.
“Fresh new Arizona numbers! In a three way race Kyrsten Sinema would get just 13% to 41% for Kari Lake and 40% for Ruben Gallego,” according to PPP.
Fresh new Arizona numbers! In a three way race Kyrsten Sinema would get just 13% to 41% for Kari Lake and 40% for Ruben Gallego: https://t.co/EcgAAkZ90J
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 22, 2022
The Arizona Sun Times reached out to Sinema for a comment but did not hear back.
The PPP states that Sinema “doesn’t have a real path to victory,” but her presence will likely have a “spoiler effect” on the Democratic candite. While the poll revealed Sinema is receiving positivity from Republicans, getting a 43/27 favorability rating from Trump voters compared to a 20/69 with Biden voters, those Republicans will likely stick with their candidate when voting time comes.
“Although Republicans may like Sinema at the moment that doesn’t actually extend to much willingness to vote for her against someone like Lake,” stated the PPP.
However, by removing Sinema from the equation, the results change. PPP has Gallego winning over Lake by a slight 48/47 margin in a head-to-head race. Moreover, Sinema would lose to both candidates in individual races.
While 2024 is a ways off, and none of these candidates have officially stated they will be running, the poll shows insight into how this next race may go and how Sine stands with the Arizona public. Overall, only 31 percent of respondents found Sinema favorable.
The PPP conducted this poll with 678 Arizona voters via phone and text. The margin of error was 3.8 percent.
As reported by The Sun Times, Sinema officially left the Democratic Party to become an Independent in early December. She stated she never “neatly fit” into one political party, nor does she want to, so moving parties was the logical move for her. Additionally, Sinema said she hopes to be representation in congress for those in Arizona and across the county who also do not align with either party.
According to data from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, “Other” voters are the second most populous in the state. While Republicans hold a first place at 34.7 percent of registered voters, a very close 33.9 percent have no party affiliation. Democrats take third with 30.7 percent, and Libertarians make up less than one percent. These numbers come from the November General Election.
However, as the PPP showed, not everyone is happy with Sinema’s change. After she made the switch, Gallego released a statement blasting her for “putting her own interests ahead of getting things done for Arizona.” While he has not officially stated he will be running for Senate, he is allegedly “thinking of” it, as shown by donation request texts shared by Axios.
Moreover, just because Sinema is no longer a Democrat does not mean she is suddenly gung-ho for Republican policies. In an opinion piece for Az Central, contributors Angela Hughey and Michael Soto explained that Sinema played a big part in the Respect for Marriage Act passing. The act requires the federal government to recognize all valid marriages between two individuals. Sinema reportedly played a heavy role in bringing people together to pass the bill through the Senate.
– – –
Neil Jones is a reporter for The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Neil on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by The Kari Lake. Photo “Ruben Gallego” by Rep. Ruben Gallego. Photo “Kyrsten Sinema” by Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Background Photo “United States Capitol Building” by U.S. Capitol.
