by Ned Ryun
We’re going to get a massive red wave this fall. The 2021 results in Virginia, out of control inflation, Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings in recent polls (for perspective, Obama’s approval rating was 44.7 percent in October 2010, just before the midterm mauling Democrats got that year), soaring gas prices, and a porous southern border indicate that even places Biden won by 20 points in 2020 are in play this fall.
Perhaps that sounds crazy at first, but it shouldn’t. Democrats are already spending millions to defend incumbent senators in states like Washington and Colorado—states Biden won by 19 and 14 points, respectively. Why? Because they’re seeing the same dynamics I am. I’ll be very surprised if on the low end Republicans don’t pick up 40 seats in the House and three or four Senate seats. On the high end? Depends on how badly Grandpa Dementia’s administration implodes over the next four months or so. Looking at the current trajectory, we haven’t seen the bottom yet.
We’re still months away from the November midterms—which will be devastating for Democrats at the state and local levels, too—and we’re already seeing people looking ahead to the presidential election in 2024 and more specifically who is going to run and represent the Republican party.
We should start with the fact that Donald Trump is going to run again. He’s 114-10 in his endorsements so far in 2022, in great health, raising significant amounts of money and will no doubt announce by January 2023, if not before (I suspect in November, post-midterms). Other names are being tossed about: Mike Pence, Kristi Noem, Nikki Haley, random names from the phone book . . . essentially an assortment of political pygmies. None of them stand a snowball’s chance in hell against Trump.
And then there is Governor Ron DeSantis, who has rocketed to national prominence for making Florida one of the best states in the entire country. He is easily the best Republican governor in America and it’s not even close. So now people think that Ron DeSantis is going to challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024.
I’m here to tell you I don’t think so and for a variety of reasons.
First, the dynamics are off for DeSantis in 2024. How do you raise over $140 million for your reelection campaign, win, and then turn around a mere six months later and become an absent governor after people have invested a significant amount of money into seeing you govern for a complete second term? That’s what he would need to do to run in 2024.
Reports are trickling out that DeSantis is working on building out his national infrastructure, but he doesn’t have enough to make a go at the presidency yet.
People think he’s going to go up against the most popular Republican president we’ve seen in generations. A former president—who will have already declared his intention to run for president when DeSantis wins his gubernatorial reelection campaign and who consequently will be sitting on far more cash than DeSantis could hope to raise from his donors? That seems unlikely.
Look at the polls. The most recent Harvard/Harris poll had Trump up 56 percent to 16 percent over DeSantis, up from 41 percent to 12 percent a month earlier. Other polls have Trump up by significant margins as well. So, it’s not really a race. So why would a very successful, 43-year-old governor go out of his way to challenge Trump? Especially when he’ll only be 49 in 2028 and the clear favorite in that nomination fight.
When you come at the king, you best not miss. There are a lot of indicators DeSantis would miss.
Trump can win the general election in 2024, against Biden or whoever the Democrats decide to put up there. After another two years of the current disaster, who knows where inflation, energy, and the markets will be? Any vestiges of supposed enforcement on the southern border might have already collapsed. I suspect people will be begging for someone to get things back to normal, and that someone will be Donald Trump.
People have hesitations about Trump running again. “He’ll be divisive! It’ll be another four years of drama!” I’m sorry, but have you seen the current occupant of the White House? The Biden Administration truly loathes this country and its way of life. So I hate to break it to anyone who might not be paying attention: we’re already divided as a country. I’ll take someone in the White House who actually loves this country and who will make the American people his priority. Trump’s personnel will be different on Day 1; no more personnel disasters but the right picks from the very first day of the administration. Even better, after the experiences of his first term, the second Trump term will be a war against the unconstitutional administrative state.
You can be nervous about Trump in 2024; you can be frustrated and have concerns. As for me, I’m all in.
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Ned Ryun is a former presidential writer for George W. Bush and the founder and CEO of American Majority. You can find him on Twitter @nedryun.
Photo “Donald Trump on the South Lawn Driveway” by Trump White House Archived. Public Domain Mark 1.0.
