Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in the final poll of Pennsylvania voters published by Emerson College Polling prior to Election Day, while the pollsters found the race between Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick and Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) is now tied.
Published on Monday, the poll found Trump narrowly leading Harris with the support of 49.3 percent of Pennsylvania voters, with the vice president trailing with the support of 48.4 percent of the commonwealth’s voters.
The pollsters found the race between McCormick and Casey to be even closer, with the men statistically tied at about 48 percent, but Casey with a 0.2 percent advantage.
With 1,000 respondents, the pollsters reported a margin of error of 3 percent for its Pennsylvania data, which also leaves Trump and Harris statistically tied.
Still, if the pollsters are accurate, they predict virtually every voter in the commonwealth has made their decision, leaving the remaining undecided voters unlikely to make much impact on the presidential race.
The pollsters found just 1.3 percent of Pennsylvania’s likely voters remain undecided, with 56.3 percent breaking for Harris when pushed and 43.7 percent going to Trump.
They additionally reported that 85 percent of respondents reported making up their mind about the presidential race more than a month ago. Another 8.1 percent told pollsters they reached their decision in the last month, and 7.7 percent reached their decision in the last week.
According to the pollsters, a majority of Pennsylvanians also now expect Trump to become the next president, with 51.1 saying Trump is most likely to win even if they do not support him. Meanwhile, 47.4 percent said Harris was most likely to be the next president.
Statistically tied in the poll, Emerson found Trump and Kamala are similarly statistically tied in their favorability ratings.
The pollsters reported that Pennsylvanians are evenly divided on Harris, with 50 percent of voters holding a favorable and negative view of the vice president, 50.1 percent having a favorable view of Trump, and 49.9 percent having an unfavorable view.
When pollsters asked Pennsylvanians about priorities heading into Election Day, the economy was the top issue and was named by 40.3 percent of respondents. Immigration and threats to democracy were both chief concerns by about 10 percent of voters, but every other election issue ranked lower than 10 percent.
Trump continues to hold a slim lead over Harris in Pennsylvania according to the RealClearPolling aggregate, which shows the former president leading by 0.3 percent.
The poll aggregator also shows that, according to the latest polls, the race has narrowed significantly for McCormick but that the incumbent Democrat continues to lead by 2.1 percent.
Some surveys have offered a more optimistic view of McCormick, including two that showed him leading after his second debate against Casey.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kamala Harris” by Kamala Harris. Photo “Bob Casey” by Bob Casey. Photo “Dave McCormick” by Dave McCormick. Background Photo “Voting Booths” by Tim Evanson. CC BY-SA 2.0.
