For the first time in a half-century, Democrats are poised to win statewide control in Arizona. Early ballots for the upcoming elections will be mailed out on October 7 as the state braces for some of the most competitive races in recent years.
The Arizona State Legislature is currently divided and under Republican control by a narrow margin. Republicans hold a 2-seat majority in the State Senate, while in the State House of Representatives, the Republicans maintain a single-seat edge, meaning Democrats need to flip just one seat in each chamber to achieve a tie and two to take the gavel.
According to the German-owned news outlet Politico, record-breaking fundraising, enhanced candidate recruitment, and the high-profile issue of abortion are being leveraged to drive their effort to engineer “a unique opportunity to significantly alter the state’s political landscape.”
LD2: Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick and Democrat Rep. Judy Schwiebert
Incumbent: Bolick
Bolick made headlines when she voted to repeal an 1864 abortion law that the Arizona Supreme Court had recently reinstated. The law, which banned nearly all abortions without exceptions for rape or incest, sparked heated debate across the state. Bolick, a Republican, broke ranks with her party to join Republican Senator TJ Shope and all Democratic senators in passing the repeal with a narrow 16-14 vote.
This decision is particularly notable given that her husband, Arizona Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, was involved in the decision to reinstate the ban. Bolick’s vote could also have substantial implications for her reelection campaign. According to political analysts her stance may resonate with more moderate voters which is important in a swing district.
Schwiebert, a Democratic member of the Arizona House of Representatives is making a run for the Senate. She has consistently opposed measures that bolster border security and economic reforms. She voted against bills supporting the U.S. Border Patrol, opposed efforts to restrict driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, and refused to back legislation empowering local law enforcement on border issues. Economically, she rejected tax relief bills that would have benefited small businesses and families, including opposing the “lemonade stand bill” that would exempt minors from certain taxes. Her voting record aligns closely with progressive policies, which has drawn criticism for not reflecting her district’s moderate stance.
According to the most recent report, Bolick has $164,386 in cash on hand, while Schwiebert holds a significantly larger amount at $327,518.
LD4: Republican Carine Werner and Democrat Sen. Christine Marsh
Incumbent: Marsh
Current incumbent Marsh defeated popular longtime legislator Nancy Barto in 2022 in this important swing district. Marsh, a former school teacher, has spent her time in the legislature being a consistent opponent of strengthening border security and supporting law enforcement throughout her legislative career. She’s repeatedly voted against key measures, including efforts to secure the border wall, fund border protection, and empower local authorities to address the escalating border crisis. Analysts say her voting record shows a clear resistance to tackling immigration challenges and supporting border communities.
Werner currently serves as a member of the Scottsdale Unified Governing Board, a position she has held since January 2023. She immigrated to the United States at the age of eleven, has leveraged her personal background in her campaign, emphasizing issues such as border security, crime prevention, and addressing homelessness with both compassion and accountability. She has positioned herself as a candidate who can bring practical, common-sense leadership to the Arizona State Senate.
The most recent report shows Werner has $118,834 in cash on hand, while Marsh twice as much at $256,719.
LD9: Republican Robert Scantlebury and Democrat Sen. Eva Burch
Incumbent: Burch
Scantlebury, a retired Mesa police sergeant, is challenging incumbent Eva Burch in one of the most competitive districts. This is a rematch of 2022 where Burch beat Scantlebury. Scantlebury, who served 27 years in law enforcement, is running on a platform that emphasizes public safety, border security, and conservative values.
On the other side, Eva Burch, a nurse and reproductive rights advocate, has made headlines for sharing her personal abortion story during the campaign and on the floor of the State Senate.
LD9 which endorses Scantlebury, said in a press release “he narrowly lost the [2022] General race to the Democrat candidate that was supported by almost $1.5M in large donations (mostly from out of state) to push the Democratic competitor.” The document resolved “that the Body of the LD9 GOP do hereby FULLY ENDORSE Robert Scantlebury as our Candidate for LD9 Senator and believe he is the BEST candidate to ONCE AGAIN defeat the incumbent LD9 Senator!”
“It’s a very diverse district in education, income and ethnicity,” said former Mesa Vice Mayor Dennis Kavanaugh, to Rose Law Group Reporter. The former Mayor who lives and works in the district described it as bluish-purple.
The most recent report shows Scantlebury has $29,931 in cash on hand, and Burch $130,081.
For those who want to get involved, Turning Point Action has launched a major initiative called “Commit 100,” as part of their broader “Chase the Vote” campaign aimed at mobilizing conservative voters in key battleground states like Arizona. This initiative encourages volunteers to chase 100 early ballots and 100 Election Day ballots, focusing on ensuring that low-propensity voters turn out.
One unique aspect of the program is that Turning Point Action is offering to cover lodging accommodations for volunteers who are willing to travel to participate in person. The group also offers opportunities to ballot chase remotely. This is part of their effort to boost grassroots involvement and maximize the impact of their ballot-chasing operations.
The last day to register to vote is October 7. The General Election will be held on November 5.
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Christy Kelly is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Christy on Twitter / X. Email tips to [email protected].
Image “Arizona State Senate” by Arizona Legislature.
