by Sarah Roderick-Fitch
Virginia appears to be in play in the presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the commonwealth, according to a poll released Tuesday morning.
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College shows Harris ahead of Trump by three percentage points (47 percent-44 percent) in a head-to-head matchup. When other candidates were included, Harris still leads by three points (45 percent-42 percent). When factoring in the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error, Harris and Trump are in a statistical dead heat.
The poll surveyed 691 likely voters in the commonwealth last week between Monday and Friday.
The poll is the first major survey on Virginia voters since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month. Earlier polling data showed Biden and Trump tied, with some showing the former president leading in the commonwealth.
Virginia is not a consensus battleground state, though the Trump campaign and Republicans such as Gov. Glenn Youngkin differ from that opinion and believe it is pivotal.
The economy appears to be the most pressing issue heading into the election, with 48 percent of respondents saying it is the No. 1 factor. A distant second is abortion (16 percent), closely followed by immigration (15 percent), foreign affairs (6 percent) and crime (4 percent).
The poll shows that Trump and Harris have lower favorability ratings than favorable. Trump is 40 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable; Harris 43 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable.
A vast majority of commonwealth voters appear to have their minds made up for who they will vote for in November, with 79 percent of likely voters saying they are very certain of their choice and 18 percent somewhat certain.
As the Harris campaign attempts to paint the vice president as a moderate, 45 percent of likely commonwealth voters view her as more liberal than Biden.
Half of likely voters (50 percent) viewed Trump’s immediate reaction to the attempted assassination attempt showed “toughness.” Meanwhile, 44 percent view the incident as an “attempt to gain votes.”
The poll also shows that the “physical characteristics” of the candidates are not important, with 64 percent saying not at all and 18 percent responding that it is “not very important.”
During the 2020 presidential election, Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won Virginia by over five points with Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate.
The last time a Republican won Virginia in a presidential election was in 2004, when former President George W. Bush ran for reelection. Bush bested then-Sen. John Kerry by over eight points.
It appears Democrats and the Harris campaign feel confident Virginia will vote blue once again come November. However, Republicans and the Trump campaign are investing in the commonwealth, hoping to ride some of the same success Youngkin has achieved. The poll shows Youngkin’s favorability rating rising to 54 percent, which is the best of his term.
The Trump campaign has opened over a dozen campaign offices throughout the commonwealth, focusing on grassroots efforts.
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Sarah Roderick-Fitch is The Center Square’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Editor. She has previously worked as an editor, and has been a contributing writer for several publications. In addition to writing and editing, Sarah spent nearly a decade working for non-profit, public policy organizations in the Washington, DC area.
Photo “Donald Trump“. Photo “Kamala Harris” by Gage Skidmore CC BY-SA 2.0. Background Photo “White House” by Cezary Piwowarczyk CC BY-SA 4.0.
