Internal Arizona polling data commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and released to one media outlet on Thursday, shows Republican U.S. Senate nominee Kari Lake is tied with Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) in the race to fill the seat being vacated by Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) in January.
The polling was obtained exclusively by National Journal, which reported both Lake and Gallego are tied at 46 percent, with an additional 8 percent of Arizona voters undecided.
Lake has polled competitively against Gallego in past surveys, the outlet noted, but the RealClearPolling aggregate of polls shows the Democrat has a 4.4 percent advantage over the Republican.
It was conducted by Peak Insights from July 31 through August 5 and included responses from 800 likely Arizona voters, according to the outlet, which reported the pollsters predicted a margin of error of 3 percent.
The Lake campaign tied Gallego to Harris in a statement responding to the polling data.
“Ruben Gallego is a Far Left progressive just like Kamala Harris,” the campaign said in a statement. “They both support open borders and all the bad Biden policies that decimated our economy and made life unaffordable for Arizonans.”
By contrast, the campaign stated “Arizonans know that” Trump and Lake “will secure the border and get the economy back on track.”
Lake was not the only Republican to receive good news. National Journal reported that pollsters found former President Donald Trump with a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in an Arizona race, which also included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The pollsters reportedly found 44 percent of Arizonans would support Trump, 42 percent would support Harris, 11 percent would support Kennedy, and 3 percent reported being undecided.
According to RealClearPolling, the former president currently has about a 1 percent polling advantage in an Arizona head-to-head contest against Harris, but in a contest including Kennedy and other third-party candidates, the outlet found polling flips to give Harris a 1 percent lead.
Election turnout could be further complicated by the two referendums recently added to the November ballot.
Most recently, pro-abortion activists successfully obtained enough signatures for voters to consider a proposal to enshrine abortion access into the Arizona Constitution, which polling suggested could boost Democratic turnout.
Arizonans will also decide whether to empower local law enforcement to arrest and deport illegal immigrants with the Secure the Border Act, which will also strengthen E-Verify and seek to prevent illegal immigrants from using the state’s welfare.
Lawmakers originally passed the legislation, but then was vetoed by Governor Katie Hobbs, which prompted Republicans to allow voters the final say in November.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by Kari Lake. Photo “Ruben Gallego” by Ruben Gallego.
