A poll published on Tuesday claims voters in the Grand Canyon State are evenly split on how to vote for a potential referendum that would enshrine the right to abortion into the Arizona Constitution.
Pollsters at Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) asked 1,003 registered Arizona voters to determine how public opinion on abortion, and specifically the possible abortion referendum, has changed since the Arizona Supreme Court allowed an 1864 abortion law to become active.
The law was since narrowly reversed by state lawmakers and ultimately repealed by Governor Katie Hobbs.
The 19th century law, which did not contain exceptions to allow abortions in cases of rape or incest, was opposed by both Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake and former President Donald Trump.
Despite the national news over the abortion law, the pollsters reported that Arizona voters are split on whether they would support a constitutional amendment to allow abortions.
Forty-two percent of respondents told pollsters they would vote in favor of such a referendum, while 42 percent said they would vote against it. An additional 18 percent of Arizona voters polled said they remain undecided on the issue.
The poll was conducted from May 7-14, and pollsters predicted a margin of error of 3.09 percent.
Pollsters additionally found the views of Arizona voters on abortion are virtually unchanged since February when 40 percent of respondents said abortion should always be legal, 50 percent said it should sometimes be legal, and 10 percent said it should always be illegal.
In the latest data, pollsters found that 40 percent said they believe abortion should always be illegal, 49 percent said abortion should sometimes be legal, and 11 percent said abortion should never be legal, representing a possible change of just 1 percent.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler noted, “When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona.”
He added, “The governor and legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.”
“When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in AZ. The governor & legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.” – @databylerhttps://t.co/TEUsRLoddh
— Noble Predictive Insights (@NoblePredictive) June 4, 2024
Byler’s remarks could ring true, as they come after presumptive Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) immediately declined to debate Lake, his likely general election opponent, when her campaign extended the offer to hash out their positions on abortion.
Additionally, before lawmakers and Hobbs repealed the 19th-century law, Gallego suggested inaction could be the better plan, claiming in April, “The only protection we really, really have is to codify this and put this on the ballot and enshrine” and “protect abortion rights.”
While it is understood many Democrats consider abortion critical to their electoral odds in November 2024, a separate poll recently found less than half of Arizona voters said abortion would drive them to the polls.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Planned Parenthood Supporters” by Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona.
