by Luke Sprinkel
A set of new polls show that Republican candidates are in close contests for both the 2024 Minnesota presidential race and the race to win the majority in the Minnesota House of Representatives.
According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted on behalf of the Trump campaign, former President Donald Trump is locked in a competitive race with President Biden in the 2024 presidential election in Minnesota. In the survey, pollsters gauged voter interest in several different scenarios.
In the first scenario, Minnesota voters were asked about their preferences in a presidential contest that featured Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Lars Mapstead. For this scenario, Trump and Biden were tied at 40%. Meanwhile, Kennedy received 9%. Another 9% of respondents said they were undecided. The remaining candidates received only 1% or less.
In a separate scenario that did not feature Kennedy or West, the poll showed Trump in the lead with 46% compared to Biden’s 41%. Additionally, 9% said they were undecided, while Stein received 3% and Mapstead received 1%.
The final scenario polled Minnesota voters when only given the choices of Trump, Biden, or undecided. In this scenario, Trump polled at 49% and Biden polled at 46%; the remaining 5% were undecided.
The margin of error for the Minnesota polls was 4%. As such, Trump is either leading Biden, or locked in a statistical tie, in every scenario. However, no Republican has won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006, and no Republican presidential candidate has won the state of Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972.
In Minnesota legislative races, Republicans are seeking to end the Democrats’ total control of state government by winning the Minnesota House of Representatives. Democrats in that chamber currently have a 70-64 majority. Therefore, a change in only four seats could give the Republicans a majority.
According to a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released this week, Republicans have a slight advantage over Democrats in the race for the state House.
In the aforementioned poll, 625 likely voters were asked if they were generally more inclined to vote for a Republican, Democrat, or another candidate in the race for the Minnesota House of Representatives. In total, 45% of respondents said they were generally more included to vote for a Republican, 43% said a Democrat, 4% said another candidate, and 8% were undecided.
Notably, the poll found Republicans leading by 10 points among independents and by three points in the suburbs.
The survey polled Minnesotans statewide, not by legislative district. As such, the poll represents only a general feeling amongst Minnesota voters and does not have specific information on key House swing districts.
This month’s KSTP/SurveyUSA poll has Trump trailing Biden by just two points, 44% to 42%.
Just last month, another KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showed Minnesota voters slightly favoring Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 45% to 44% in the race fore the state House. Before that, a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showed Democrats had a 46-41 lead over Republicans amongst Minnesotans asked about the race for the House.
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Luke Sprinkel previously worked as a Legislative Assistant at the Minnesota House of Representatives. He grew up as a Missionary Kid (MK) living in England, Thailand, Tanzania, and the Middle East. Luke graduated from Regent University in 2018.
