Republican Governor Ron DeSantis’ support among voters declined in the latest Marquette University Law School poll, with the presumptive GOP presidential candidate’s once robust numbers sagging against former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, Biden’s job approval rating has plunged to 39 percent, down 4 percentage points from January and the second lowest of his presidency in the Wisconsin poll.
In a multi-candidate matchup, Trump now leads in the GOP presidential nomination race, receiving 40 percent support among registered Republicans and Independents who lean Republican, according to the poll. DeSantis is the choice of 35 percent of respondents.
Former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley each garner 5 percent support. No other potential candidate received more than 1 percent support, while 12 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided or did not support any of the 11 names offered in the question.
DeSantis leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 54 percent to 46 percent. But the gap has narrowed significantly since the law school’s January poll, when DeSantis led Trump 64 percent to 36 percent.
In a theoretical re-match, Trump and Biden are tied, each receiving 38 percent support from registered voters. Another 20 percent of respondents say they would vote for someone else and 4 percent would not vote.
In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, DeSantis receives 42 percent and Biden is the choice of 41 percent, with 13 percent saying they would vote for someone else and 4 percent saying they would not vote. DeSantis had a seven-point edge over Biden in January’s poll.
The full survey of 1,004 adults nationwide was conducted March 13-22, and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Among the 863 registered voters interviewed in the sample, 381 identified as Republicans or Independents leaning Republican, while 401 identified as Democrats or Independents who lean Democrat.
Wisconsin Republican political strategist Mark Graul doesn’t put too much stock in the early polls. He said the numbers are at the bottom of the list of what really matters right now to a presidential campaign.
“What matters right now is what they’re doing to building an organization, how they are fundraising, what key backers they’re gaining to their team, how they are organizing, especially in the early voting states,” said Graul, owner of Madison, WI-based Arena Strategy Group.
Most Americans aren’t thinking about the Republican presidential primary 10 months before the 2024 primary season begins. Graul said DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Ohio businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and other Republicans either in or mulling a presidential campaign need to think about how they’re going to catch up to the former president and his built-in name recognition.
The Marquette University Law School Poll shows Trump favorability ratings at 66 percent among Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents, and 31 percent with an unfavorable opinion. Only 2 percent “haven’t heard enough” about the former president, who announced his campaign shortly after November’s mid-term elections.
DeSantis, meanwhile, has a 69 percent favorability rating among respondents, with 15 percent holding an unfavorable view of the governor. Another 15 percent haven’t heard enough about him.
The poll finds 47 percent of respondents haven’t heard enough about Haley to form an opinion.
Trump is certainly helping to keep DeSantis in the public eye, attacking his nearest GOP rival with a barrage of insults, nicknames and criticisms — in typical Trump style. DeSantis has committed some glaring unforced errors in his campaign before the campaign, including his mixed messaging on Ukraine.
“DeSantis’ muddled messaging on Ukraine and the multiple legal investigations into Trump mean that this year’s primary race “is a vast sea of uncertainty,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist and former DeSantis pollster, told Reuters this week. “The nomination fight is wide open.”
Graul said the threats of indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney over the Stormy Daniels affair haven’t hurt Trump in the early campaign battles.
“I think the Trump team has done a really nice job leveraging more support, not less,” the strategist said. “I think this Stormy Daniels nonsense, even those of us who would like to see someone other than Trump as the nominee, that’s pretty weak stuff they’ve got going there that plays into Trump’s favor.”
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M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
Photo “Ron DeSantis” by Ron DeSantis.
