New figures released this month by the Arizona Secretary of State reveal that Republicans have increased their voter registration lead over Democrats to over 7 percent, with 35.90 percent to Democrats’ 28.64 percent, representing 1,602,308 voters to Democrats’ 1,278,195.
About a year ago, Republicans held a 5.77 percent lead. Independents remain ahead of Democrats but behind Republicans with 30.68.
In Maricopa County, Republicans maintained a 7 percent lead over Democrats from a year ago, with 35.44 percent, or 917,074 voters, compared to Democrats’ 28.59 percent, or 739,701 voters. The GOP’s edge statewide and in Maricopa County has been increasing steadily since 2021.
The Arizona Republican Party (AZGOP) issued a statement following the release of the new numbers.
“This month, the latest Voter Registration Report was released for the State of Arizona, showing that Democrats lost 10,921 voters from their rolls from January to April,” the AZGOP said. “The Democrats’ losses were especially high in Maricopa County (-5,121) and Pima County (-2,555). Democrats did not gain voters in any of Arizona’s 15 counties, while Republicans gained voters in seven counties.”
AZGOP Chair Gina Swoboda added, “April’s numbers show that Republicans’ rural county registration advantages are growing as we work to clean voter rolls in the counties of Maricopa and Pima. Republicans will continue to earn the trust of Arizona voters in the months ahead as we work alongside President Trump to make Arizona and America Great Again.”
In the Democratic stronghold of Pima County in southern Arizona, the number of Republicans increased while the number of Democrats decreased. Republicans now hold 28.18 percent of voter registrations to Democrats’ 37 percent, a difference of less than 9 points. A year ago, Democrats had a 10-point edge.
The heavily Republican counties in the state saw slight gains. In Pinal County, located between Pima and Maricopa Counties, Republicans increased their lead to 39.83 percent, compared to Democrats’ 23.22 percent, a difference of over 16 points. A year ago, Republicans held a 37.44 percent lead over Democrats’ 23.53 percent, representing only a 14 percent margin.
New Pinal County Attorney Brad Miller, widely considered the only elected conservative prosecutor in the state, ousted a more moderate Republican in the primary last year. No Democrat bothered running against him in the general election.
Republican-dominated Yavapai County, located north of Maricopa County, increased the GOP’s lead slightly to 51.86 percent compared to the Democrats’ 18.13 percent, a staggering difference of over 33 points. A year ago, Republicans held 51.47 percent of the county’s electorate, compared to Democrats’ 18.76 percent. Conservative Mark Finchem defeated Ken Bennett in the primary race for state senate there last year, mainly due to voters’ fury over Bennett’s voting record on election integrity.
Third parties remain very small, with under 1 percent of the electorate each. The No Labels party is at 0.82 percent, followed by the Libertarian Party at 0.71 percent, and the Green Party at 0.11 percent.
In 2020, at the time of the general election, Republicans made up only 35.24 percent of registered voters, just 3 percent more than Democrats at 32.20 percent. In Maricopa County, Republicans constituted 35.26 percent, while Democrats constituted 31.37 percent, a difference of less than 4 points.
Independents generally split evenly between voting for Democrats and Republicans. A 2015 survey by Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy found that 14.6 percent of Arizona independents identify as conservatives, 12.1 percent as liberals, and 73.3 percent as moderates. Last year, independents in Arizona broke for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris for president. In 2023, a slight majority of independents leaned Republican; 45 percent of adults identified as Republicans or leaned Republican, compared to 43 percent for Democrats.
Voter registrations increased by almost half a million from the previous year, as Arizona remains one of the most popular states for relocation. According to U-Haul, Arizona was the sixth most popular state for moves last year. There are now 4,463,365 registered voters in the state, up from 4,058,320 last year.
However, these numbers are expected to decrease this year due to county recorders being forced to remove noncitizens from the voter rolls after settling a lawsuit from America First Legal. Up to 50,000 registered voters who failed to provide documented proof of citizenship could be noncitizens, and those types of voters heavily skew Democratic.
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Rachel Alexander is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter / X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “People Voting” by liz west. CC BY 2.0.
